Hi everyone
I did give information and comment on Aspen on 2 occasions in the JSE listed Shares thread 12 Jun and 17 Jun, but I am starting a new thread.
Below are 2 weekly charts over 20+ years and the second over 10 years showing the breakout.
The breakout happened at the week ending 29 May 2020 at around R136-00. It went up to R150-00 and came back to test and successfully did so in the week of 8/6/2020 and confirmed the breakout last week by closing at R143-00.
This is an extremely bullish situation, especially because it has changed to bullish on the 2nd of June 2020 by my program, and breaking a major sellers' resistance of more than 5 years in the same week.
Aspen is a typical defensive stock and here you can see that the correction in March was not the bottom of its bear trend, but this actually happened last year in August. This is typical of defensive stocks to recover first in the new market or interest rate cycle.
With this breakout and resistance level broken, I expect this sharp upward trend to continue and to break the resistance line on the 2nd chart, and continue to the high levels made in 2015, at R440-00. I also expect this to happen at a pretty rapid pace.
Only time will tell, but this is now the Nr 1 share on my program and even outperforming the best on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
Keep safe
Just a quick update on Aspen since we are seeing it moving lower and testing the weekly breakout it made after the week of 29 May 2020. This breakout was the reason for it moving into an extreme bullish situation recognized by my program.
There are multiple buyer support levels currently being tested in different time-frames. We have the weekly level at R138-40 and we have a daily support at around R136-55.
I suspect we might test this daily support today and could close near this level.
I would prefer us to close on the R138-40 mark by tomorrow afternoon, as this would be the weekly buyers support level. This would keep us in this extremely bullish trend.
There is such strong momentum for Aspen currently and I am pretty confident we would see at least the R136-55 level hold. Between R137-00 and R139-00 are extremely good buying levels identified by the program.
The next few days should confirm whether this extreme bull trend will continue.
As mentioned in my previous posts, Aspen entered an extremely bullish situation and my program picked up on this since the 15th of May 2020. It broke an upward seller resistance, but with the 3rd time of testing this level, it broke back below it, about a week ago. The outlook has changed by my program since we have traded below this level for the past 6 trading days. We will probably test this seller's resistance level within the next couple of days at around the R138-20 mark.
My program still has a reasonably high eventual target price for Aspen (R550), but the rate of growth will be much slower than anticipated earlier.
The current "short-term" trading range is between R108 and R138-50, with the bottom support increasing on a daily basis.
I would like to see it break the R138-20 level, but for now, I am not super excited anymore. Reducing risk at the R138 mark could be an option in the short term.
My program has a Nasdaq tech company as the top share with Aspen slipping into 11th spot on my program.
Sibanye is now the best SA share in 3rd position.
Safe trading.
Aspen...... from Hero to Zero?
What went wrong? In my previous post, I mentioned that I am not super excited because Aspen's share price broke the uptrend support, and reducing risk at the R138,20 mark could be an option. It has now gone on and broken below its Bull support (R117,50) as well and tested it.
Currently, Aspen has a trading range between R57-77 and R142-30, with the downside risk outweighing the upside potential. Since Monday my program has given Aspen as an excellent share to short and it has proven to be just that.
This was a serious break and most people expected buyers to get in at the bull support level. Unfortunately, the share price is currently not behaving as a Rand hedge share should and there are also "outside influences" on this share as I explained in this post. Usually, as soon as this happens, it is not a share where the share price can be predicted or stays in its trend, and lately, there are too many of them on the JSE. (ASC, SNH, APN).
These 3 shares are not investment-worthy in my books at the moment and add to the list, Marriott International (MAR) on the Nasdaq. All of them have the same "disease".