Further below is a Mail I sent to our Mailing list members on the 4th of May at 3:27pm.

The Top40 did in fact break the resistance at 48 850 on Wednesday and tested it on Thursday to end right on the 48 850 level. That is the reason why we had a strong up day on Friday.

I now expect us to continue with this recovery in the market.

Mail on 4th of May at 3:27pm

Hi Everyone

This is an update on Ascendis Health, which I have been following recently, and has been near the top of my Share Selection Program for the last 6 weeks.

Ascendis will be coming out with a statement on their lending agreement tomorrow. I expect this to be big news. Their share price has broken multiple resistance levels since 10:00 this morning.

My update Tuesday evening mentioned us testing the 48900 level for the Top40 (after the 40+% recovery from 19 March lows). We are still testing this level and risk was added worldwide to riskier assets in most portfolios. If we see a pullback triggered by (a 2nd wave or American Riots) we will see a return to defensive stocks like Food Retailers and Health Care. This push up to the 48900 level was caused by money flowing in SA and causing the Rand to strengthen. With a pullback, we will see the Rand weaken once again.

Being that Ascendis is a defensive stock as well as a Rand hedge, this is a very good entry point.

Also, the fact that it has broken multiple resistance levels a day prior to their statement could confirm that some investors might already be aware of the content thereof.

I did do a more extensive post on them on 22 April 2020 and you can view that here: (where I compare the to Aspen)

http://www.sharechat.co.za/forum/topic/21346-ascendis-health-ltd-–-jseasc/?p=291655

I am not sure what time their report will be coming out, so today might be a good day to enter, instead of tomorrow. Otherwise, you could wait for the statement, but I am expecting a big jump with this report.

All the best and safe trading

Quintin (Pilot)

Afternoon  Everyone

I did give an update on ASC last Thursday because of their market movement and breaking of resistance levels, and because of the fact that a statement regarding their lender agreement was due.

I have also been monitoring APN over the past couple of months. APN has recently broken a 4 year sellers resistance level on the 15th of May and has changed to bullish on the 2nd of June 2020. It has since gone up to the R150 level and has retraced to support levels identified by my program. APN has now taken the top spot in my program and has entered the steepest bull trend I have seen for any share I have monitored. This bull trend has the potential of 20% growth rate per month, which is insane.

APN has the 3rd highest upside potential of all the shares monitored, and only beaten by Ascendis and Steinhoff. Steinhoff has the potential of reaching 8 times its current share price, where APN could reach its target price of R658-00, but APN should do it in a much faster time, given its steep bull trend. The one other main indicator I have developed is to determine a share's momentum going forward and here APN (9,7%) also takes the top spot beating SSW (7,4%), SOL (7,2%), and ASC (5,6%). This indicator gives an indication of its ability to continue with the current trend and in this case, the probability is very high. 

From a Macroeconomic standpoint, Aspen is in the right part of the cycle, because defensive stocks are preferred in this part of the cycle, especially after a correction.

APN is also a Rand hedge stock, and the Rand is in a continuing weakening trend vs all the major currencies. We have also tested the R16-50 support vs the dollar 2 days ago, and this should spark renewed weakening of the Rand and will drive the price of APN.  

Taking a long term perspective, Aspen has been in a bear trend over the past 5 years and is currently at levels they were 8 years ago (2012). 

With the current Covid situation, they are better off (as ASC in this post on Sharechat) than they were before. Their earnings should grow and they will continue to produce better results going forward. I also believe that in future, Healthcare stocks will return to the P/E ratios of 15-25, where defensive stocks usually trade. Healthcare should take a higher priority in households across the world after this pandemic and in the years to come, because of the lives lost and the impact thereof.   

All this being said and the fact that APN has entered this very steep bull trend and in all likelihood will continue because of the momentum indicator, this is a very good entry point from a medium and long term perspective. Prices in the R134 to R139 are seen by the program as very good entry levels, depending on a lot of factors.

Please read the disclaimer, as this is not financial advice, but my opinion on this share.

Take care and enjoy your weekend.

Quintin

Good evening Everyone,

For those that followed the 3 month challenge might remember that I mentioned the TOP40 reaching the higher end of its trading range in this post on the 18 of Feb 2020. SSW (SGL then) and Impala Platinum were also at their upper limit and the program got these spot on too.

On the 24th of February, the program had Sasol as the worst share to hold, and with the most downside potential in this post. The program had it exactly right as Sasol lost nearly 90% of its value over the next month. On the 25th of February, the program picked up that the Top40 had entered a Bear trend and the consequences thereof. Please read it here as this had some important information to take into account going forward. 

The Top40 is once again in the same situation as the 25th of February, but a little different this time around. It has broken the 48850 Level on Wed 3 June and tested it on Thursday (Posted here). It then went up to test the 51000 level and came back to re-test the 48850 level. It has done so on the 11th and 12th of June, making 2 Doji hammers (which is a very Bullish pattern) and right above the 48850 level, which was actually perfect. 

Unfortunately yesterday, this support level has been broken strongly. I expect us to test this level once again tomorrow, although I'm not sure what the influence of the holiday is going to be. According to my program, the Top40 is at the higher end of its trading range between 33635 and 53540, and is about the worst asset to hold of any of the shares I am watching currently. Keep in mind I am monitoring much fewer shares than in the past, as I am converting to International shares.

There is little upside potential to the 53500 level and the chances are greater that we will not reach that level. The Top40 is in a bear trend, and if we cannot stay above the 48850 level, the downtrend will continue. If there is to be a sell-off, we would see a weakening of the rand once again, as we have seen over the past 3 days. 

I expect banks and other Financials to be hardest hit with a sell-off (FSR, SBK, ABG, CPI, etc). Most of the other shares in the Top40 has some kind of Rand Hedging, but the Financial shares have very little to fall back on. Their future picture does not look good with Overdrafts, Car loans, and Home loans failing because of Covid-19 and losses of Income because of this. It will have a snowball effect and I am seriously concerned about this sector.

Although the Resource sector is seen as a Rand Hedge, I am not seeing it hold up in the weeks/months to come, as it is also losing momentum. ANG, IMP, and GFI are all showing very low momentum figures. Even Gold as the safe-haven asset, might not be full-proof against another sell-off. 

It's not all doom though. 4 Shares have come up recently as being close to long term buying levels, with very good Reward to Risk ratios.

All of them are Rand Hedge Stocks and 2 are Healthcare (ASC & APN), which I posted here last week. I am not sure what is driving Sibanye Gold, because it is showing different results from the other Gold/Platinum shares.  Steinhoff is also showing strong recent support levels at R1-00 and after the March (Covid-19) correction, it only spent 7 trading days below 97c. My program has picked up this recent support and it has an upper trading range of R8-21, which is pretty huge. I do not expect Steinhoff to drop below this R1-00 support, especially after their set of Financials recently.

Attached are some figures I have selected from the program, to show the Risk/Reward, Momentum, and Upside Growth Potential.

In short, my Perfect Hedge Fund Portfolio for the South African market would have a slightly Bearish Exposure, shorting the Financial sector and having long positions in Defensive Rand Hedge Stocks. Just my 2c.

Gents, then I will not be sending E-mails in the future regarding my market views and share opinions via E-mail. As with the Perfect Portfolio Mailing group, I will post my views and comment on the Forum in the future. I am currently posting on too many platforms, and the mails are going to take up too much of my time, with replies on E-mail as well as on the Forum. 

If you still want to receive updates like these, please make sure to follow the topic on the Forum. (Click the 3 dots to the right of the Post and select "Follow Post") 

Our Perfect Portfolios will be ready to invest in, in about 2 weeks time. I will update the news on the forum as well.

Keep safe and Regards

Quintin

Morning Everyone

Some of you might have seen that Aspen is up 7% this morning and they have just released a statement regarding their ability to supply Dexamethasone in tablet and injectable form. (The new "proven" drug for Covid-19 Patients)

This explains why it has changed to the steepest Bull trend by the program I have seen by a share yet. This happened last week and I posted it in my previous two posts. Read more here and here.

I expect this steep bullish uptrend to be honored. Aspen has an upper trading limit of R660-00, which is very reachable in the near future. I am not sure how quickly this price will go up today, and I have the feeling that it won't stay at the R149-00 level for very long.

Below is their statement this morning at 10:42

Regards

Quintin

ASPEN PHARMACARE HOLDINGS LIMITED (Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa) (?Aspen Holdings?) Registration number: 1985/002935/06 Share code: APN ISIN: ZAE000066692 LEI: 635400ZYSN1IRD5QWQ94 and its subsidiaries (collectively ?Aspen? or ?the Group?) USE OF DEXAMETHASONE IN THE TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH COVID-19 REQUIRING RESPIRATORY INTERVENTION To ensure the equal distribution of information which may possibly be price sensitive, Aspen has noted the preliminary results of a drug trial using dexamethasone in the treatment of patients with COVID-19 requiring respiratory intervention and the related media coverage. It is confirmed that Aspen owns rights to this product and distributes both injectables and/or tablets containing dexamethasone in a number of countries. Aspen markets an injectable dexamethasone in South Africa, which is manufactured locally by a third party. Durban 17 June 2020

Hi Everyone

I am glad to announce that the Perfect Aggressive Portfolio, using the Next Level Share Selection Program, did 7,92% in the first month by trading in S&P500 stocks. It will be listed as an Investment Strategy on Monday 6 July with the QAJ ticker.

Read more here

Morning Everyone

I have just been informed that our first Darwin QAJ is now ready for Investment.

It seems as though they have adjusted the returns to offer it at a lower risk for investors and to protect them from downside losses. I will update on this later.

The anticipation is finally over and everyone will now be able to allocate their funds to our QAJ Darwin.

The US Markets (In which this Darwin trades) open at 3:30 pm (GMT+2) in the afternoon, so the latest updated prices will be when the markets are open in the US.

For those that need to open an account can do so here.

Hi Everyone

This post is a follow-up on the strange share price behavior of Ascendis in comparison to Aspen in this post and where my program has changed the valuations on both of these recently.

I have mentioned in the past that I use a couple of Indicators that I have developed over the years to assist in the future price projection of Companies on the Stock Exchange.

One of these is a Momentum Indicator I developed, which actually has nothing to do with the Momentum Index given by most charting programs, but picks up momentum by Buyer or Sellers that will increase the movement of a share in that direction in future.

The other is an "Outside Influence Index" that my program picks up. This usually happens when a share moves in a different manner from the natural market movement by which "normal" shares would move.

About 85% of shares abide by a range between +2,5% and -2,5%, and then there are a small group of shares that give figures that makes your eyebrows lift. +45% to 200% and -15 to -30%.

In the past, I always knew that this Indicator was important in the future price of a Share, and I had to work it into the equation, but I didn't always know why. So hence I dubbed it the "Outside Influence Indicator"

But when posting the previous post on my findings on the strange movement of Ascendis's share price I came to realize that it had a significant negative "Outside Influence Index" of -15%.

I monitor about 50 shares and Indexes, and only 2 have figures of less than -2,6%.

The one is Ascendis and the other is Steinhoff. Steinhoff has an even worse figure of -30,1%.

Over the past few years, I have always seen that shares with a negative "Outside Influence Index" perform worse than others of time and Vice Versa.

I now believe that this index carries more weight than I initially expected and that there is a continuous force moving these share prices in a direction that most people can't understand. If you take the valuations of both these companies (ASC and SNH), they should trade at much higher levels than they are currently trading at, but they defy the laws of valuations.

The same is happening with TESLA for instance. The current share price is making a mockery of anyone trying to justify the valuations of this company. It has a seriously high "Outside Influence" value by my program, but not the highest though.

There are currently 7 shares (Screened from about 400 Stocks) with notably high values of 45%+. We have a CryptoCurrency, two Nasdaq Healthcare stocks, a SA Resource Stock, a Nasdaq Technology Stock, an Electric Car Manufacturer, and then our Number 1......

Aspen ....... has the highest value for Outside Influence, of all those my program monitor, and watch this space. There is some deeper news that most people don't know about it..... yet (or might never know). The SENS announcement that came out yesterday might hold much more significance than most people realize. A takeover or two might be on the cards and future dominance in this sector could well be the case going forward. Aspen is also one of the rare few that have been at buying levels over the past week.

Knowing who or what these "Outside Influences" are, is a guessing game most of the time. I just know that I will avoid Investing in those that have negative figures going forward, as it is usually a waste of time, fighting against these outside forces. I will definitely be fighting with the Market movers in Future ......

Safe trading

Aveng is sold out. Hoping that GT247 can get some.